The proxy battle between the United States and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan didn’t spill over into a world war.

Who is right? In general, proponents of restraint have a harder time pointing to teapot tempests that have boiled over into overt conflict. Partisans of restraint, however, argue that reacting too harshly to lesser challenges to the international order can quickly lead to a spiral of conflict and war. Certainly, Europe and the United States’ near indifference to Russia’s predations in Georgia may have encouraged Russian President Vladimir Putin to believe there would be little consequence to his invasion of Ukraine. Partisans of intervention and deterrence argue that allowing a rapacious power to snack on small fry without consequence will only encourage larger adventures. The cost-benefit calculus of such geostrategic challenges is difficult. But will those measures deter a power intent on fomenting civil war, as Russia is doing at this very moment in the Balkans? Or stem a crisis like the one Russia recently brewed at the Polish-Belarusian border?

Sure, Washington can sanction bad actors, reinforce internet security, harden weak points in infrastructure, and call out election interference. Difficult to combat, most of these actions fall well short of war as conventionally defined but are clearly over the line of acceptable international interaction. Then there are the so-called gray zone conflicts that bedevil the United States and its allies-unconventional attacks, cyber meddling, and the like. They may get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in World War III.” President Donald Trump infamously slammed Montenegro’s accession to NATO, telling Fox News host Tucker Carlson it “is a tiny country with very strong people. NATO’s expansion has been beset by worries over provoking Russia.

There was substantially less agonizing over Russia’s incursion into Georgia and the “ frozen conflict” it imposed over Abkhazia and Ossetia. Washington agonized over how to address Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. In many ways, the Taiwan question mirrors myriad others over the decades. On the other, there is a debate around whether Taiwan would be “worth” a military confrontation that could escalate into a major conflict between the United States and China. On the one hand, there is the issue of Washington’s “strategic ambiguity”-the uncertainty of whether a Chinese attack on the small island it claims would be met by a U.S. The question of Taiwan is preoccupying Washington.

World war iii 2021